The Miami Heat’s offence has been among the worst in the NBA over the last two seasons. That’s a big enough sample size to know we needed something new.
That’s why the Heat, hoping to solve some of the offensive problems, acquired guard Terry Rozier for guard Kyle Lowry and a lottery-protected first-round pick in 2027 in a trade with the Charlotte Hornets on Tuesday.
One look at Rozier’s results this season is enough to realize that he can immediately help a Heat offense that entered Wednesday night’s game against the Memphis Grizzlies at the Kaseya Center with the 20th-ranked offense in the NBA this season and the 28th-ranked offense in January.
Rozier, who is listed as questionable for Wednesday’s game because the trade is still pending, is in the midst of a season that is on track to be the best of his career. In 30 games for the Hornets prior to the trade, he averaged the most points (23.2 per game) and assists (6.6 per game) while making 35.8 percent of his three-pointers (7.7 per game) and 45.9 percent of his shots from the field.
Rozier’s true shooting percentage (a shooting percentage that takes into account the value of three-pointers and free throws in addition to the usual two-point shots) of 57.4 per cent this season is very close to his career-best true shooting percentage of 57.5 per cent from the 2020/21 season, despite the increased usage this season.
With the extended absence of Hornets guard LaMelo Ball, Rozier has managed to remain an effective offensive player despite having to settle for a career-high usage rate (an estimate of the percentage of a team’s plays a player makes while on the court) of 26.8 percent this season.
How much the 29-year-old Rozier will help the Heat will depend on how he settles into his new role. The Heat’s leading trio of Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro are still expected to be the focal point of the offense, so Rozier will have to adjust to them.
Rozier won’t have as high a usage rate and won’t take 18 shots a game like he did this season with the Hornets. Will that mean more opportunities for Rozier? That hasn’t been his strong suit, shooting just 29.9% on 2.9 three-point attempts per game this season and 33.8% on 3.5 three-point attempts per game in 2022-23.
Therefore, the Heat will have to find a way to get Rozier into ball situations to make the most of his offensive ability. This will likely lead to lower usage rates for Herrera (28 percent this season) and Adebayo (27 percent this season), who have the two highest usage rates on the team this season.
If Rozier’s performance with the Hornets is any indication, this trade will pay off. Among the 18 players who have averaged at least four three-point attempts per game this season, Rozier ranks third with a 39.3% shooting percentage on those opportunities, just behind Los Angeles Clippers guard James Harden (44.3%) and New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson (40.1%), according to NBA statistics released Wednesday. Rozier is ahead of players such as Indiana Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton and Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young.