The UEFA Champions League has returned, and Europe’s premier club competition presents a fresh format for the 2024-25 campaign.
The tournament has expanded from 32 to 36 teams, introducing significant structural changes. Gone is the traditional group stage, where 32 clubs were split into eight groups of four.
Instead, a single 36-team league table now determines the fate of participants. Each club will play eight fixtures—two more than in previous seasons—against a range of opponents, making the competition more dynamic.
The new system grants automatic qualification to the knockout phase for the top eight teams. Meanwhile, the sides finishing between ninth and 24th will enter a play-off round to secure their place in the last 16.
However, there is no safety net in the form of the Europa League this time. Clubs finishing in the bottom 12, along with those eliminated from the play-off round, will see their European adventures end abruptly for the season.
Opta’s supercomputer has already run 50,000 simulations of the new Champions League league phase, offering a glimpse of how the standings could shape up by the campaign’s end.
For Scottish champions Celtic, the numbers are intriguing. Following Matchday 3, the data suggests that 11 points is their most likely haul from the group phase.
If that prediction holds, the Glasgow side would finish 21st in the standings, comfortably securing a play-off spot for the knockout rounds.
Celtic currently sit on four points from their first three fixtures. According to Opta, there is a 17.6% chance they will reach 11 points, with a 12.8% likelihood of finishing on 10 and an 8.7% chance of collecting 12 points.
With the club’s two most challenging away fixtures already behind them, supporters are optimistic about capitalising on the three home games that lie ahead.
One of Celtic’s critical fixtures will be against Dinamo Zagreb, who are projected to finish 24th—the final spot eligible for the play-offs.
Meanwhile, other clubs such as RB Leipzig, Club Brugge, and Young Boys Bern are predicted to miss out on the knockouts unless they find form in their upcoming fixtures.
Leipzig, currently without a point after three games, will travel to Celtic Park on November 5 in search of a lifeline. Elsewhere, Brugge will host current leaders Aston Villa on Matchday 3 before making their way to Glasgow for a crucial encounter.
