With the international break over, focus shifts back to domestic football, and for Celtic, that means resuming their Scottish Premiership campaign.
While Brendan Rodgers’ side still have work to do in the Champions League, their primary focus remains on the league, where they hold a commanding position.
Currently, Celtic sit nine points ahead of their fierce rivals Rangers, with Aberdeen emerging as their closest competition under new manager Jimmy Thelin.
Both Celtic and Aberdeen are tied on 31 points at the top of the table, though Celtic’s consistency and dominance in key metrics suggest they are better placed to sustain their form over the season.
Celtic vs Aberdeen: A Statistical Perspective
Despite being level on points, advanced stats from HudlStatsBomb’s ‘Match Time’ metric paint a clear picture of Celtic’s superiority. This metric, which analyses expected goals (xG) for and against over 90 minutes, highlights the attacking and defensive strengths of Rodgers’ side compared to Aberdeen.
Celtic’s dominance is evident in their attacking output. The Match Time graph shows a steady rise in their xG from kick-off, peaking around the 60th minute.
This reflects Celtic’s ability to create high-quality chances early in games. The slight drop-off in xG after the hour mark suggests that many matches are effectively decided by then, allowing Celtic to ease their tempo.
Defensively, Celtic also outperform Aberdeen. Their xG against remains consistently low throughout games, with only a slight increase after half-time.
Aberdeen, by contrast, exhibit more vulnerability. Their xG for and against are closely aligned, indicating they concede as many opportunities as they create.
Notably, Aberdeen’s defensive lapses occur just before and after half-time, a potential weakness that Celtic could exploit in future encounters.
Both teams benefit from strong defensive performances late in games, as shown by a decline in xG conceded in the final stages. However, Celtic’s ability to limit high-quality chances consistently sets them apart.
Rangers’ Struggles Highlight the Gap
When comparing Celtic and Aberdeen to Rangers, the disparity becomes even more apparent. Rangers’ xG figures highlight their inability to score consistently, while their defensive metrics are inferior to Celtic’s.
While Philippe Clement’s side stabilise defensively towards the end of matches, their sharp decline in attacking output is a significant concern.
This lack of balance has left Rangers far behind their city rivals, with little statistical evidence to suggest they can bridge the gap.
As things stand, Rangers appear destined to fall further behind unless drastic improvements are made.
For now, Rodgers’ Celtic may find their strongest challenge comes from Thelin’s Aberdeen rather than their traditional rivals.
The Season Ahead
Despite Aberdeen’s impressive start, their metrics suggest they will struggle to maintain this form over an entire campaign.
Celtic’s superior consistency, both offensively and defensively, gives them a significant edge as the season progresses.
For Rangers, the situation is more dire. Unless they can address their attacking inefficiencies, a third-place finish may become their reality—a far cry from the title challenges their supporters have come to expect.
Celtic’s Next Test
Celtic are in a strong position, both statistically and in the league table. Their dominance, coupled with Rodgers’ experience, bodes well for the remainder of the campaign.
This weekend’s trip to Tynecastle to face Hearts offers an opportunity to extend their momentum.
While Aberdeen are proving resilient for now, the numbers suggest Celtic remain the team to beat in Scotland. Whether they can maintain their form and keep their rivals at bay will be the narrative to watch as the season unfolds.